Who's betting like they already know the outcome?
We scan every Polymarket trade for statistically impossible winning patterns — the same signals that flagged the Super Bowl insider, Alpha Raccoon, and the Israel-Iran military bettors.
Active signals
Jul 07 – Jul 13, 2026
A wallet just 6 hours old that executed an extraordinary 156-for-156 sweep across 216 markets — a result the math says should not happen, with bets up to $28,401
A wallet just 3 hours old posting 26 consecutive wins with zero losses across 121 markets — statistically near-impossible
A wallet just 4 hours old posting a 51-win perfect streak across 145 markets — statistically near-impossible, with bets up to $4,449
A wallet just 22 hours old that executed an extraordinary 526-for-526 sweep across 577 markets — a result the math says should not happen
A wallet just 15 hours old posting 30 consecutive wins with zero losses across 738 markets — statistically near-impossible
Confirmed cases
Real insider trades that made headlines — the patterns we scan for
A brand-new account traded exclusively on Super Bowl LX halftime show markets — correctly predicting 17 out of 19 outcomes including surprise guest performers, with a largest single bet of $36,000. The account went completely dormant immediately after the show.
An account concentrated in science & tech markets achieved a 96% win rate across 23 resolved bets on Google Year in Search outcomes — a p-value near zero by chance. The same account correctly predicted the exact launch window of a major AI model months earlier, profiting ~$1M total.
A weeks-old account placed $32,000 in escalating bets on a geopolitical market across a single night — starting at $7,000 and increasing every few hours until 11PM, hours before a classified US military operation. Profited $436,000. Cashed out via US exchanges without attempting to conceal identity.
Six linked wallets made $1.2M betting on the precise timing of US airstrikes on Iran — positions placed hours before the strikes materialized. On-chain analysis linked the wallets via a shared exchange deposit address. Two Israeli nationals, including an IDF reservist, were later indicted — the first criminal charges ever filed for prediction market insider trading.
How it works
Scan every trade
We monitor all Polymarket trades daily, grouping activity by wallet address.
Score for insider patterns
Each wallet is scored 0–99 across three signals: Ghost Account, Perfect Record, and Last-Minute Conviction.
Surface the anomalies
Wallets with statistically improbable accuracy get flagged. You see the narrative. Subscribers get the full data.
Get the GhostBetter weekly digest
Free subscribers receive a weekly narrative summary of flagged wallets. Full wallet data, daily alerts, and API access coming soon.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.